Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.4% vs Zegras 40.4% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 68.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 84.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 86.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (647)
33.6% (143)
+16.9%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
39.0% (41)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (42)
100.0% (1)
-61.9%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +61.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 34.7% vs left-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
53.9% (445)
31.6% (98)
Away
46.4% (375)
39.1% (87)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
48.7%
38.9%
P2
51.4%
38.0%
P3
50.8%
27.1%
OT
58.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.5%
29.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |