Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +19.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Zegras 35.4% (+19.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 74.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 87.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Aho
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
29.6% (230)
+20.3%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
32.1% (56)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
100.0% (1)
-56.7%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +56.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Aho shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Aho
Zegras
Home
53.2% (554)
30.6% (147)
Away
46.5% (501)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Aho
Zegras
P1
49.1%
33.0%
P2
50.8%
31.7%
P3
49.7%
25.6%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |