Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Kozak 48.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 90.1%
Defensive zone
Kozak 63.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 62.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 80.9%
80.9%
19.1%
Aho
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Aho
Kozak
Last 6: Aho 5-1 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Kozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,619)
48.3% (431)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
62.5% (8)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (464)
48.9% (45)
-2.6%
On power play, Kozak has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Aho shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Aho
Kozak
Home
52.4% (4,308)
47.6% (229)
Away
50.1% (4,085)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Aho
Kozak
P1
51.1%
54.4%
P2
52.0%
45.7%
P3
50.7%
45.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |