Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Aho wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 53.8% vs Johnston 50.1% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 68.6%
Defensive zone
Johnston 81.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 61.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Aho
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Aho
Johnston
Last 8: Aho 2-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
5
Aho
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (785)
50.7% (552)
+0.5%
Power Play
63.8% (213)
61.5% (13)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (57)
43.5% (69)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Aho shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Aho
Johnston
Home
54.9% (548)
50.3% (342)
Away
53.3% (507)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Aho
Johnston
P1
52.8%
54.4%
P2
58.9%
47.2%
P3
50.6%
49.4%
OT
60.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:36 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |