Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Aho wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 54.9% vs Johnston 51.0% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 78.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 61.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 50.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Aho
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Aho
Johnston
Last 8: Aho 6-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
1
Aho
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (870)
52.6% (696)
+1.9%
Power Play
62.4% (266)
52.3% (88)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (62)
42.4% (125)
-5.3%
On power play, Aho has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Aho shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Aho
Johnston
Home
53.9% (603)
52.8% (458)
Away
56.8% (595)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Aho
Johnston
P1
54.1%
48.9%
P2
55.0%
52.3%
P3
57.4%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |