Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.4% vs Jarvis 42.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 17-4 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 78.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 96.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 91.5%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Cirelli
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
4
(21 meetings)
17
4
Cirelli
Jarvis
Last 10: Cirelli 8-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cirelli
Jarvis
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
10
1
Cirelli
Jarvis
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Jarvis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (5,684)
42.0% (352)
+7.8%
Power Play
56.9% (571)
43.7% (119)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,196)
38.2% (157)
+5.6%
On power play, Cirelli has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,851).
Cirelli shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Jarvis
Home
49.6% (3,763)
43.8% (336)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
38.7% (292)
By Period
Cirelli
Jarvis
P1
49.9%
39.7%
P2
48.8%
39.5%
P3
49.2%
46.1%
OT
51.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 05:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |