Scouting Report
Shane Wright holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 41.2% vs Wright 45.1% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 64.3%
Defensive zone
Wright 80.5%
Neutral zone
Wright 72.8%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Buchnevich
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Buchnevich
Wright
Last 8: Buchnevich 6-2 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
2
1
Buchnevich
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
3
1
Buchnevich
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
0
Buchnevich
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
37.0% (211)
43.9% (758)
-6.9%
Power Play
50.0% (10)
50.7% (67)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
40.0% (5)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Wright has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Buchnevich is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Buchnevich shoots left. Wright is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Wright
Home
35.6% (87)
46.3% (406)
Away
38.3% (141)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Buchnevich
Wright
P1
36.3%
46.8%
P2
37.6%
42.6%
P3
38.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
36.2%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.3%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 18:46 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |