Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Wagner wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.1% vs Stamkos 52.0% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.8%
Defensive zone
Wagner 63.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Wagner
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Wagner
Stamkos
Last 5: Wagner 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Wagner
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (332)
51.4% (725)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
53.7% (123)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (129)
61.4% (44)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Wagner is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Wagner shoots right. Stamkos is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Wagner
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (233)
53.3% (426)
Away
48.1% (237)
51.3% (466)
By Period
Wagner
Stamkos
P1
45.9%
56.6%
P2
47.8%
48.2%
P3
52.7%
52.7%
OT
42.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 2 | 12:31 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 12, 2017 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |