Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 83.5%
Defensive zone
Cozens 82.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 85.7%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Cozens
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Cozens
Stamkos
Last 7: Cozens 1-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Cozens
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Cozens
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
55.9% (499)
-9.2%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
56.3% (126)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
58.3% (12)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Cozens
Stamkos
Home
46.2% (567)
55.3% (349)
Away
44.9% (579)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Cozens
Stamkos
P1
46.5%
57.0%
P2
46.5%
59.2%
P3
44.2%
51.5%
OT
22.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |