Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 59.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
6
Larkin
Stamkos
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
4
Larkin
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
49.3% (789)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
56.9% (181)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
54.1% (98)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
55.6% (662)
52.0% (512)
Away
48.3% (542)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
49.9%
42.1%
P2
52.7%
56.4%
P3
53.0%
53.7%
OT
68.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |