Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 55.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 87.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Larkin
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
49.3% (670)
+3.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
53.7% (121)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
33.3% (3)
+22.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
54.7% (783)
54.0% (400)
Away
54.3% (816)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
55.9%
48.6%
P2
56.1%
54.5%
P3
51.1%
45.4%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |