Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 40 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 66-35 in 101 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 56.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 57.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Larkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
66
(101 meetings)
35
66
Larkin
Stamkos
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
11
29
Larkin
Stamkos
40 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
16
23
Larkin
Stamkos
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
8
14
Larkin
Stamkos
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
50.4% (9,799)
+1.3%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
55.1% (1,725)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
49.7% (825)
+0.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stamkos
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Larkin
Stamkos
P1
52.7%
49.1%
P2
53.1%
52.7%
P3
52.1%
50.9%
OT
58.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |