Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 53.1%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Stamkos 52.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 57.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Pavelski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Stamkos
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Pavelski
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
52.9% (735)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
53.4% (73)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
53.8% (145)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pavelski is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Pavelski shoots right. Stamkos is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stamkos
Home
55.2% (458)
54.1% (481)
Away
51.4% (531)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Pavelski
Stamkos
P1
54.0%
50.2%
P2
54.5%
53.4%
P3
50.5%
55.8%
OT
60.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 1 | 19:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |