Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs Stamkos 46.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 68.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 74.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Bailey
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Bailey
Stamkos
Last 9: Bailey 7-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
1
Bailey
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
3
0
Bailey
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
46.0% (767)
-1.8%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
50.0% (126)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
46.2% (26)
-4.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bailey is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Bailey shoots left. Stamkos is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stamkos
Home
43.1% (295)
49.7% (441)
Away
45.6% (320)
43.6% (486)
By Period
Bailey
Stamkos
P1
46.5%
43.7%
P2
45.7%
50.2%
P3
41.3%
45.1%
OT
38.5%
46.4%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2011 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 22, 2011 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 22, 2010 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 09:42 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 2 | 11:50 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |