Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 48.6% vs Stamkos 49.6% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 55.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 61.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Bailey
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bailey
Stamkos
Last 5: Bailey 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (56)
48.1% (669)
+3.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
58.2% (110)
-58.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
50.0% (40)
-16.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +58.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bailey is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (51).
Bailey shoots left. Stamkos is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stamkos
Home
53.5% (43)
52.0% (402)
Away
37.5% (32)
47.2% (417)
By Period
Bailey
Stamkos
P1
33.3%
46.3%
P2
60.0%
52.4%
P3
44.8%
50.2%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
46.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |