Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.0%). Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.4%
Defensive zone
Norris 50.0%
Neutral zone
Norris 52.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Norris
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Norris
Stamkos
Last 10: Norris 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
0
Norris
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
1
Norris
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
49.3% (789)
+1.9%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
56.9% (181)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
54.1% (98)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Norris is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Norris shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Norris
Stamkos
Home
55.6% (487)
52.0% (512)
Away
47.0% (549)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Norris
Stamkos
P1
54.8%
42.1%
P2
51.3%
56.4%
P3
48.0%
53.7%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:48 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 06:48 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 18:19 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 18:52 | Offensive | Josh Norris |