Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 53.8% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 70.3%
Defensive zone
Greig 90.0%
Neutral zone
Greig 68.1%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Greig
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Greig
Stamkos
Last 5: Greig 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Greig
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
4
0
Greig
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (280)
49.3% (670)
+4.3%
Power Play
61.3% (31)
53.7% (121)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (69)
33.3% (3)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Greig is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Greig shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Greig
Stamkos
Home
56.2% (185)
54.0% (400)
Away
53.3% (195)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Greig
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
48.6%
P2
51.6%
54.5%
P3
59.5%
45.4%
Final 5 min
58.7%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |