Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pinto 50.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.8%
Defensive zone
Pinto 78.8%
Neutral zone
Pinto 56.3%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Pinto
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Pinto
Stamkos
Last 10: Pinto 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
5
Pinto
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
3
2
Pinto
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
5
Pinto
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pinto
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (2,716)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.2%
Power Play
54.4% (90)
55.1% (1,725)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (234)
49.7% (825)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pinto is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (855).
Pinto shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Pinto
Stamkos
Home
50.9% (1,501)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
49.6% (1,539)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Pinto
Stamkos
P1
48.3%
49.1%
P2
51.7%
52.7%
P3
50.9%
50.9%
OT
46.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |