Connor McMichael vs Tage Thompson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 39.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.8% vs Thompson 45.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 51.0%
Defensive zone
McMichael 68.3%
Neutral zone
McMichael 55.8%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
McMichael
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McMichael
Thompson
Last 5: McMichael 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
McMichael
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
McMichael
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (399)
44.9% (642)
-2.5%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
47.9% (94)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (96)
33.3% (33)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, McMichael has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. McMichael is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (183).
McMichael shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
McMichael
Thompson
Home
43.0% (298)
46.0% (391)
Away
42.5% (252)
43.4% (378)
By Period
McMichael
Thompson
P1
46.5%
48.1%
P2
41.1%
44.9%
P3
41.3%
41.2%
Final 5 min
44.0%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |