Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 45.8% vs Hertl 54.7% (-15.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 79.6%
Defensive zone
Kempe 76.0%
Neutral zone
Kempe 79.8%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Kempe
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kempe
Hertl
Last 6: Kempe 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Kempe
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kempe
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Kempe
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.3% (61)
55.7% (648)
-16.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
60.4% (149)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
42.2% (83)
-8.9%
On even strength, Hertl has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kempe is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Kempe shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Kempe
Hertl
Home
58.6% (29)
58.3% (391)
Away
25.6% (39)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Kempe
Hertl
P1
36.4%
58.9%
P2
28.6%
51.5%
P3
54.2%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
76.9%
Final 5 min
36.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |