Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 84.2%
Defensive zone
Kempe 87.8%
Neutral zone
Kempe 91.8%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Kempe
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
18
(29 meetings)
11
18
Kempe
Hertl
Last 10: Kempe 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
6
4
Kempe
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
Kempe
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
Kempe
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
53.8% (8,268)
-13.6%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
59.3% (1,975)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
46.3% (806)
-3.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Kempe
Hertl
Home
42.4% (1,045)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Kempe
Hertl
P1
39.5%
53.6%
P2
40.1%
54.1%
P3
42.2%
55.3%
OT
37.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
37.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 3 | 04:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 12:22 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 3 | 13:11 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |