Scouting Report
Derek Grant holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 52.2% vs Hertl 51.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.8%
Defensive zone
Grant 70.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Grant
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Grant
Hertl
Last 8: Grant 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Grant
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grant
3
0
Grant
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Grant
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (397)
51.7% (869)
+3.0%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
55.7% (176)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (110)
44.9% (138)
-0.4%
On power play, Grant has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Grant is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Grant shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Grant
Hertl
Home
53.6% (222)
51.8% (583)
Away
51.9% (293)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Grant
Hertl
P1
48.5%
52.5%
P2
54.3%
50.9%
P3
55.0%
51.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2019 | 3 | 08:35 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 1 | 10:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 1 | 09:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2019 | 1 | 09:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |