Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Svechkov wins 37.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 39.8% vs Hertl 55.4% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 91.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 94.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 94.0%
6.0%
94.0%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Svechkov
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Svechkov
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
0
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (318)
54.1% (717)
-17.3%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
61.9% (210)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
58.1% (31)
-58.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +58.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 37.8% vs left-shot opponents (222).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
37.0% (181)
58.1% (492)
Away
36.4% (154)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
35.1%
57.1%
P2
44.4%
54.0%
P3
30.8%
56.6%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
35.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
36.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |