Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Harkins wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 52.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.6%
Defensive zone
Harkins 81.7%
Neutral zone
Harkins 60.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Harkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Harkins
Hertl
Last 7: Harkins 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Harkins
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Harkins
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (152)
54.1% (717)
-3.4%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.9% (210)
+38.1%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (66)
58.1% (31)
+1.0%
On power play, Harkins has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Harkins is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Harkins shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Harkins
Hertl
Home
54.8% (115)
58.1% (492)
Away
51.9% (104)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Harkins
Hertl
P1
51.4%
57.1%
P2
53.3%
54.0%
P3
55.6%
56.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
53.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:30 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |