Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 48.8% vs Hertl 54.7% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Larsson 70.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 89.3%
Neutral zone
Larsson 77.1%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Larsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Larsson
Hertl
Last 10: Larsson 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
10
Larsson
Hertl
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larsson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
2
1
Larsson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (504)
55.7% (648)
-5.5%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
60.4% (149)
-27.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (96)
42.2% (83)
-0.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larsson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (440).
Larsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Larsson
Hertl
Home
48.2% (272)
58.3% (391)
Away
49.0% (337)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Larsson
Hertl
P1
48.6%
58.9%
P2
56.1%
51.5%
P3
41.0%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
76.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
48.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 19:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | OT | 03:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:58 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |