Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pederson wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 50.0% vs Hertl 54.7% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pederson 64.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.0%
Neutral zone
Pederson 61.4%
Result
Lane Pederson favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Pederson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pederson
Hertl
Last 9: Pederson 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Pederson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Pederson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (70)
55.7% (648)
-4.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
60.4% (149)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
42.2% (83)
-42.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +42.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pederson is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Pederson shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Pederson
Hertl
Home
55.3% (38)
58.3% (391)
Away
45.0% (40)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Pederson
Hertl
P1
38.7%
58.9%
P2
62.5%
51.5%
P3
52.2%
54.3%
Final 5 min
30.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
50.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |