Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Backstrom wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 50.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Backstrom 66.9%
Defensive zone
Backstrom 71.5%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 74.4%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Backstrom
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Backstrom
Hertl
Last 10: Backstrom 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
8
Backstrom
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
2
0
Backstrom
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (473)
54.1% (1,117)
-2.7%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
59.8% (296)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backstrom is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Backstrom shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Hertl
Home
53.6% (278)
54.3% (709)
Away
46.6% (236)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Backstrom
Hertl
P1
51.5%
51.6%
P2
56.0%
53.6%
P3
43.5%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
50.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 03:46 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |