Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.5%). Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Sturm
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Sturm
Hertl
Last 7: Sturm 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
0
Sturm
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Sturm
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
51.6% (1,084)
+2.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
61.0% (246)
-32.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
44.1% (136)
+5.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +32.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
54.0% (287)
55.2% (696)
Away
52.0% (302)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
53.5%
55.4%
P2
51.0%
54.8%
P3
55.1%
48.9%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 12:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |