Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 78.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 79.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 57.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Sturm
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sturm
Hertl
Last 5: Sturm 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
54.1% (717)
+8.0%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
61.9% (210)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
58.1% (31)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
61.8% (191)
58.1% (492)
Away
56.3% (231)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
58.0%
57.1%
P2
57.9%
54.0%
P3
60.6%
56.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |