Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 56.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 89.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 74.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cates
Hertl
Last 5: Cates 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cates
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cates
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
54.1% (717)
-7.4%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
61.9% (210)
-28.0%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
58.1% (31)
-23.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
46.1% (521)
58.1% (492)
Away
43.3% (584)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
48.0%
57.1%
P2
42.3%
54.0%
P3
44.3%
56.6%
OT
31.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 08:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |