Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Bergeron wins 60.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bergeron 57.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Bergeron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bergeron
Hertl
Last 8: Bergeron 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bergeron
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Bergeron
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bergeron
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bergeron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.9% (870)
54.7% (570)
+5.2%
Power Play
54.4% (272)
55.2% (143)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (169)
54.5% (77)
-1.2%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bergeron is 60.2% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Bergeron shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Bergeron
Hertl
Home
57.8% (611)
56.2% (379)
Away
58.0% (700)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Bergeron
Hertl
P1
57.7%
53.4%
P2
57.6%
52.7%
P3
58.7%
57.6%
OT
52.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
59.4%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
57.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 06:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 06:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |