Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.2% vs Hertl 51.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Stastny
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Stastny
Hertl
Last 10: Stastny 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stastny
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Stastny
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Stastny
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (657)
51.7% (869)
+1.1%
Power Play
61.0% (118)
55.7% (176)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
61.1% (72)
44.9% (138)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stastny is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Stastny shoots left. Hertl is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Stastny
Hertl
Home
53.0% (464)
51.8% (583)
Away
56.7% (383)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Stastny
Hertl
P1
47.9%
52.5%
P2
59.6%
50.9%
P3
54.9%
51.0%
OT
55.6%
53.3%
Final 5 min
57.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 00:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 18:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 03:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |