Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Faksa wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Faksa 53.2% vs Hertl 57.1% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.2%
Defensive zone
Faksa 90.9%
Neutral zone
Faksa 65.8%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Faksa
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Faksa
Hertl
Last 5: Faksa 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Faksa
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Faksa
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Faksa
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Faksa
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (289)
58.0% (816)
-1.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.5% (260)
-56.5%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (126)
62.9% (35)
-13.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Faksa is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Faksa shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Faksa
Hertl
Home
54.9% (182)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.2% (235)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Faksa
Hertl
P1
61.1%
51.4%
P2
51.3%
64.1%
P3
50.0%
58.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |