Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 77.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 82.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Johansen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Johansen
Hertl
Last 10: Johansen 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
5
2
Johansen
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
5
2
Johansen
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johansen
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (597)
57.0% (718)
-5.1%
Power Play
57.9% (133)
64.9% (188)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (81)
44.2% (77)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Johansen shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Johansen
Hertl
Home
55.8% (387)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.7% (424)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Johansen
Hertl
P1
50.0%
56.3%
P2
56.2%
55.4%
P3
52.6%
60.5%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 13:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 05:27 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |