Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hertl wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Trenin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Trenin 46.6% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 88.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Hertl
Trenin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Hertl
Trenin
Last 8: Hertl 5-3 Trenin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
0
Hertl
Trenin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trenin
0
3
Hertl
Trenin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Trenin
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
46.5% (144)
+10.5%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
50.0% (2)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
41.9% (74)
+2.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trenin shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Hertl shoots left. Trenin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Hertl
Trenin
Home
59.2% (463)
45.7% (129)
Away
56.0% (520)
44.0% (91)
By Period
Hertl
Trenin
P1
56.3%
47.5%
P2
55.4%
52.6%
P3
60.5%
32.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Trenin
42.0%▲
40.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |