Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Hertl wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.2% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.9%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 62.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
0
Hertl
Ostapchuk
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
3
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (823)
51.7% (300)
+6.4%
Power Play
56.2% (265)
33.3% (3)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
43.6% (55)
+19.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Hertl shoots left. Ostapchuk is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Home
59.7% (561)
49.1% (161)
Away
55.9% (562)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Hertl
Ostapchuk
P1
51.6%
50.0%
P2
63.8%
45.7%
P3
58.6%
55.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |