Scouting Report
Jansen Harkins holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Harkins on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Harkins wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Harkins 52.4% vs Nosek 51.4% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 69.0%
Defensive zone
Harkins 57.5%
Neutral zone
Harkins 59.4%
Result
Jansen Harkins favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Harkins
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Harkins
Nosek
Last 5: Harkins 4-1 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Harkins
1
0
Harkins
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Harkins
3
1
Harkins
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Harkins
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (152)
53.0% (400)
-2.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
33.3% (12)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (66)
45.5% (44)
+13.6%
On power play, Harkins has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Harkins is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Harkins shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Harkins
Nosek
Home
54.8% (115)
49.6% (244)
Away
51.9% (104)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Harkins
Nosek
P1
51.4%
53.1%
P2
53.3%
51.4%
P3
55.6%
51.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Harkins
48.0%▼
50.5%
53.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:29 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Jansen Harkins |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Jansen Harkins |