Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.0% vs 42.7%). Kelly wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 43.9% vs Novak 45.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 87.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 70.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.1%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Kelly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kelly
Novak
Last 6: Kelly 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (556)
42.9% (198)
+1.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
40.9% (22)
-40.9%
On power play, Novak has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
44.8% (368)
40.9% (110)
Away
41.0% (334)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
46.7%
39.1%
P2
48.0%
43.9%
P3
34.8%
44.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
35.8%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
43.0%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |