Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 50.7% vs Novak 43.5% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 78.5%
Defensive zone
Novak 72.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 76.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 74.7%
25.3%
74.7%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McLeod
Novak
Last 6: McLeod 1-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
McLeod
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (628)
40.7% (460)
+10.6%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
61.5% (39)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (49)
0.0% (1)
+30.6%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
McLeod shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
51.5% (394)
47.0% (236)
Away
50.0% (324)
37.9% (264)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
51.5%
43.1%
P2
47.0%
43.1%
P3
54.3%
40.1%
Final 5 min
50.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |