Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Novak 43.5% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 95.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 93.3%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Monahan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Monahan
Novak
Last 5: Monahan 5-0 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
0
Monahan
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
40.7% (460)
+16.4%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
61.5% (39)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
0.0% (1)
+44.6%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +44.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Monahan shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Monahan
Novak
Home
55.3% (644)
47.0% (236)
Away
54.5% (628)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Monahan
Novak
P1
53.9%
43.1%
P2
55.3%
43.1%
P3
54.4%
40.1%
Final 5 min
55.9%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |