Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Aho wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 53.8% vs Novak 43.5% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 89.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 84.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Aho
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Aho
Novak
Last 6: Aho 5-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (785)
40.7% (460)
+10.5%
Power Play
63.8% (213)
61.5% (39)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (57)
0.0% (1)
+57.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Aho shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Aho
Novak
Home
54.9% (548)
47.0% (236)
Away
53.3% (507)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Aho
Novak
P1
52.8%
43.1%
P2
58.9%
43.1%
P3
50.6%
40.1%
Final 5 min
52.3%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:50 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |