Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Boyd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Boyd 44.1% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Boyd leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 57.3%
Defensive zone
Boyd 51.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 51.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Stepan
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Stepan
Boyd
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
1
Stepan
Boyd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boyd
1
3
Stepan
Boyd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boyd
4
5
Stepan
Boyd
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
44.4% (2,186)
+2.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
46.5% (256)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
35.6% (208)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Boyd is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (813).
Home / Away
Stepan
Boyd
Home
47.6% (6,608)
46.3% (1,327)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
41.5% (1,324)
By Period
Stepan
Boyd
P1
47.5%
41.7%
P2
45.6%
46.2%
P3
46.8%
44.0%
OT
40.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
47.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 05:25 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2018 | 3 | 09:18 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |