Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Zegras 42.6% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 75.9%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 92.2%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 91.1%
Result
Blake Lizotte favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Lizotte
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Lizotte
Zegras
Last 6: Lizotte 5-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Lizotte
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
5
0
Lizotte
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
41.1% (559)
+11.4%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
50.0% (12)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
50.0% (2)
-8.6%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lizotte is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Lizotte shoots left. Zegras is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Zegras
Home
51.4% (383)
45.7% (247)
Away
50.9% (424)
38.0% (326)
By Period
Lizotte
Zegras
P1
48.8%
45.5%
P2
51.0%
36.8%
P3
53.5%
41.1%
Final 5 min
48.3%
37.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |