Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 47.5% vs Bozak 53.0% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 57.2%
Defensive zone
Bozak 69.1%
Neutral zone
Bozak 61.8%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
MacKinnon
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Bozak
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
MacKinnon
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (365)
53.8% (1,244)
-8.6%
Power Play
57.1% (63)
53.1% (356)
+4.0%
On even strength, Bozak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. MacKinnon is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (129).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bozak is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bozak
Home
48.0% (225)
57.7% (892)
Away
45.8% (203)
48.6% (883)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bozak
P1
41.1%
54.0%
P2
49.6%
54.4%
P3
48.9%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
56.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |