Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.1% vs 48.7%). Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stamkos wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 49.3% vs Bozak 48.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.4%
Defensive zone
Bozak 68.1%
Neutral zone
Bozak 54.4%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Stamkos
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stamkos
Bozak
Last 6: Stamkos 2-4 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Stamkos
Bozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
3
Stamkos
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (433)
48.8% (1,036)
+0.2%
Power Play
54.3% (70)
53.8% (225)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
39.1% (138)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Stamkos is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Stamkos shoots right. Bozak is 50.3% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Bozak
Home
51.1% (327)
50.8% (608)
Away
46.0% (202)
47.0% (791)
By Period
Stamkos
Bozak
P1
46.6%
48.0%
P2
51.5%
48.1%
P3
48.6%
49.8%
OT
61.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 05:20 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |