Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.6%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Kozak 49.7% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 82.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 75.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Aho
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Aho
Kozak
Last 6: Aho 5-1 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
1
Aho
Kozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
49.3% (294)
+0.6%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
60.0% (5)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
50.0% (40)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Kozak has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Aho shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Aho
Kozak
Home
53.2% (554)
45.5% (145)
Away
46.5% (501)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Aho
Kozak
P1
49.1%
53.4%
P2
50.8%
50.0%
P3
49.7%
44.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |