Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.9% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 89.8%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 59.4%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 77.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 76.8%
23.2%
76.8%
Lafferty
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lafferty
Karlsson
Last 7: Lafferty 5-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lafferty
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
0
Lafferty
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (366)
55.3% (897)
-3.1%
Power Play
60.0% (15)
61.1% (113)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (104)
50.8% (132)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Lafferty shoots right. Karlsson is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Karlsson
Home
53.1% (258)
58.6% (560)
Away
48.9% (227)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Lafferty
Karlsson
P1
52.5%
55.8%
P2
49.7%
55.6%
P3
51.3%
55.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 12:18 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |