Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Johnston 51.0% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 75.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 93.5%
Neutral zone
Johnston 91.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 87.3%
12.7%
87.3%
Carlsson
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Carlsson
Johnston
Last 9: Carlsson 7-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
0
Carlsson
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
2
Carlsson
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
52.6% (696)
-10.8%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
52.3% (88)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
42.4% (125)
-3.7%
On power play, Johnston has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Johnston
Home
44.5% (362)
52.8% (458)
Away
38.3% (368)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Carlsson
Johnston
P1
46.3%
48.9%
P2
35.1%
52.3%
P3
43.9%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |