Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 41.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 43.9% vs Johnston 51.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 80.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 88.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 81.1%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Kelly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Kelly
Johnston
Last 8: Kelly 1-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
5
Kelly
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Kelly
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (556)
52.6% (696)
-7.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
52.3% (88)
-52.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (144)
42.4% (125)
-5.6%
On power play, Johnston has a +52.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kelly is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Kelly shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johnston
Home
44.8% (368)
52.8% (458)
Away
41.0% (334)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Kelly
Johnston
P1
46.7%
48.9%
P2
48.0%
52.3%
P3
34.8%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
35.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
43.0%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |