Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 54.5% vs Johnston 51.0% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 56.4%
Defensive zone
Johnston 65.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 60.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Thomas
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Thomas
Johnston
Last 9: Thomas 2-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Thomas
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
4
Thomas
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (990)
52.6% (696)
+2.7%
Power Play
54.2% (190)
52.3% (88)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (158)
42.4% (125)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Thomas is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Thomas shoots right. Johnston is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Thomas
Johnston
Home
55.1% (690)
52.8% (458)
Away
54.5% (648)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Thomas
Johnston
P1
55.5%
48.9%
P2
56.4%
52.3%
P3
51.5%
51.4%
OT
69.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |